njue期末统计课件statistics.pptxVIP

Topic12: Time series and trend analysis;Introduction ;A several of time series;The question is ;Scatter diagram;polygon;Time series components;;Secular trend;;Measurement of secular trend;Semi-averages;;Least-squares linear regression;year;Excel;year;Moving averages;Calculation of the 3-year moving averages for data;Calculation of the 4-year moving averages for data;Exponential smoothing;year;;The smoothing constant ----α;Growth model;Constants----a and b;;year;Seasonal variation;Examples of seasonal variation;Medical practitioners report a substantial increase in the number of flu cases each winter Liquor outlets undergo increased sales during festive seasons Airline ticket sales (and price!) increase during school holidays The amount of electricity and water used varies within each 24-hour period The volume of work for tax agents increases dramatically around the time when e tax forms have to be filed.;Cyclical variation;Examples of causes  of cyclical variation ;The opening of a new shopping complex The building of a new airport Economics depressions or recessions Major sporting events, such as the Olympic Games Changes in consumer spending (i.e. lack of confidence) Changes in government monetary policy;Irregular variation;Examples of events that  might cause irregular variation;Strikes (e.g. a strike by airline pilots affects many people working in the travel industry) A government calling an unexpected election Sudden shifts in government policy Natural disasters Dramatic changes to the stock market The effect of war in the Middle East on petrol prices around the world;Class work;The average retail price of one dozen eggs in Hobart at 30 June is shown below at each of the 5-year intervals between 1981 and 2006. Use the growth model (use the last two digits of the year, i.e. 81, 86, etc.) to predict the price of eggs (to the nearest cent) in Hobart on 30 June 2011;Answer z=-4.038+0.05394(year) c1=-4.038 c2=0.053