全球固定收益资产组合.docxVIP

/▼卜 HSBCGlobal Research 12 June 2019 Fixed Income Asset Allocation That was quick Fixed Income Global? The adverse scenario informing our US 10-year Treasury forecast appears to have played out. No change to the 2.10% end-2019 forecast Instead, the focus turns to curves where the US front-end has room to steepen if Fed rate cuts start soonWe are neutral duration across core rates markets, but are more cautious on credit, which looks increasingly exposed 谕 This video is available as a podcastSubscribe via research.hsbc Reversing over-optimism bias explains half of the yield dropRave 4There is much discussion about the suddenness of the recent drop in US yields. Indeed, weaker data, trade tensions and the Feds focus on the inflation undershoot explain the recent downward shift in end-2020 rate expectations. But this misses the point that expectations for the economy and rate hikes were overly optimistic, largely due to the Feds projections in Q4 2018. Steven Major, CFAGlobal Head of Fixed Income Research HSBC Bank plc steven.j.major@hsbcib +44 20 7991 5980Duration and curve: taking stock as yield forecasts are hitPaae 11 A flattening bias is maintained for Eurozone curves, whilst front-end steepening is now preferred in the US. We are tactically neutral on duration across Treasuries, Bunds and gilts. That said, we cut our year-end 10-year Bund yield forecast to -20bp, down from 10bp previously. Inflation-linked: reaching for the bottomPaqe 8US and Euro breakevens have faced a potent cocktail of unfriendly forces. 30-year TIPS continue to offer the best outright value for those prepared to look throughthe near-term noise and position consistently with a steeper curve. Credit looks exposedPaqe 21 Deteriorating fundamentals support our cautious stance across much of the global credit spectrum. Nevertheless, we have become more concerned, especially in Asia, that the spread widening could be even larger than we previously thought. Bullish backdrop for EM local ra