风险管理软件CrystalBall使用指导.pdfVIP

Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball To run a simulation using Crystal Ball : 1. Setup Spreadsheet Build a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.精品 文档放心下载 2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variables 精品文档放心下载 Define which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.谢谢阅读 3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measure 精品文档放心下载 Define which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, e.g., profit).谢谢阅读 4. Choose Number of Trials 感谢阅读 Select the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “SensitivityAnalysis” under Options in Run Preferences.感谢阅读 5. Run Simulation Run the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the 感谢阅读 simulation, you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset谢谢阅读 Simulation”button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.感谢阅读 6. View Results The forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears 谢谢阅读 automatically after (or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the worksheet.感谢阅读 Crystal Ball Toolbar: Define Define Run Start Reset Forecast Trend Assumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window Chart 谢谢阅读 Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball 精品文档放心下载 Recall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must 精品文档放心下载 decide how many of next year’s nature calendars to order. Each 感谢阅读 calendar costs the bookstore $7.50 and is sold for $10. After 感谢阅读 February, all unsold calen