罗宾斯管理学决策.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 6–* Decision-Making Conditions An Example of Decision-Making in an Uncertainty Condition Maximax: the optimistic manager’s choice to maximize the maximum payoff Maximin: the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the minimum payoff Minimax: the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret. 第二十八页，共四十九页。 6–* Exhibit 7–9 Payoff Matrix Example: Which Strategy Will U Choose? Suppose you are a sales manager of VISA P189 罗宾斯 管理学 第二十九页，共四十九页。 6–* Exhibit 7–9 Payoff Matrix Maxmax choice Maxmin choice P189 第三十页，共四十九页。 6–* Exhibit 7–10 Regret Matrix Minimax choice P190 24-13= 24-9= 24-24= 24-18= 21-14= 21-15= 21-21= 21-14= 28-11= 28-18= 28-15= 28-28= 第三十一页，共四十九页。 6–* Review Decision-Making in an Uncertainty Condition 利益可能性的最大化抉择 Maximax: the optimistic manager’s choice to maximize the maximum payoff (Think about the largest Possible gain) 利益最低可能性的最大化决策 Maximin: the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the minimum payoff (Think about the lowest Possible gain) 后悔程度最小化决策 Minimax: the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret. (Think about minimizing the Possible regret) 第三十二页，共四十九页。 6–* 4. Decision-Making Styles 决策者的风格 线性有逻辑的 非线性直觉的 集体参与的决策 个人独断的决策 当机立断式 深思熟虑式 恰到好处式 第三十三页，共四十九页。 6–* 4.1 Linear-Non linear thinking style profile Linear thinking style Nonlinear thinking style A decision style characterized by a person’s preference for using external data and facts and processing this information through rational, logical thinking A decision style characterized by a person’s preference for internal sources of information and processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches直觉. 第三十四页，共四十九页。 6–* Exhibit 7–11 Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases 4.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and Errors P191 第三十五页，共四十九页。 6–* 4.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and Errors Heuristics 启示法 Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making. 1）Overconfidence Bias 自负偏见 Holding unrealistically positive views of one’s self and one’s perform