巴德 宏观经济学原理（英文版·第8版）Chapter 6 Eye Ons.pptxVIP

6EYE ONSJobs and Unemployment The U.S. economy has spent a long time away from full employment. In 2009, the unemployment rate was 10 percent and the U-6 measure of underutilized labor was almost 18 percent. The recovery from this recession was long and slow. In mid-2016, policy makers asked: Is the recovery now complete? Are we back at full employment? At full employment, the unemployment rate equals the natural unemployment rate. So let’s compare the BLS measure of the unemployment rate and the CBO estimate of the natural unemployment rate. In the first quarter of 2016, the actual and natural unemployment rates were equal at 4.9 percent. So on these numbers, we’re back at full employment. But the natural unemployment rate is only an estimate. It varies over time and is influenced by many factors. Also, the employment–population ratio and the labor force participation rate data point to a different answer to the full-employment question. Both of these measures fell by 3 percentage points between 2007 and 2016. Three percent of the working-age population had disappeared from the labor force. Where did these people go? Did they represent hidden unemployment? The Atlanta Fed suggests using Z-Pop ratio: the percentage of the working-age population that is fully utilized. The fully utilized are the people working full-time, working part-time for a noneconomic reason, and who say they don’t want a job. Before the 2008-2009 recession, 95.2 percent of the population was fully utilized by this definition.The number fell and then slowly climbed to 94.5 percent of the population. So the Z-Pop ratio gives almost the same answer as that by comparing the unemployment rate with the natural unemployment rate, but not quite.The Z-Pop ratio shows a small amount of underused labor remaining in 2016. Some people are unemployed for a week or two and others for a year or more.The average duration of unemployment varies over the business cycle—increasing in a recession and decre