电动汽车产业创新系统动力学模型的构建与运行.doc

PAGE II PAGE I 中文摘要 我国已初步形成了电动汽车产业链，电动汽车产品化、商品化进程在调整中不断完善，电动汽车产业正处于产业培育期向产业发展期的过渡阶段，如何顺利实现过渡，迎来电动汽车产业发展的高峰，是当前研究的热点问题。 本文主要研究了电动汽车产业创新系统的系统动力学模型的构建与运行。首先，结合系统动力学的国内外研究现状，阐述了系统动力学的建模原理、建模方法以及建模软件，奠定了论文的理论基础。其次，运用系统动力学建模工具Vensim软件，构建了电动汽车产业创新系统的系统动力学模型，并在此基础上，研究了电动汽车产业创新系统的内部运行机制，剖析了系统内部各组成要素之间的因果反馈关系，并进行了模型的仿真运行和灵敏度分析；最后，结合模型运行结果，分别从人才层面、技术层面、企业层面提出了促进电动汽车产业发展的建议。 研究成果表明：人才已成为电动汽车产业快速发展的关键所在；政府管制是推动电动汽车产业创新的重要因素；企业家精神是产业创新的“灵魂”；由于电动汽车产业是新兴的产业，大部分成果都属于基础性研究，应用性较差，所以，我国电动汽车企业在今后一段时间里还要更加重视人才培养，科技创新，促进技术进步。 本文的特色在于：基于系统科学理论，运用系统动力学建模工具Vensim软件构建了电动汽车产业创新系统的系统动力学模型并仿真运行，在定量分析的基础上，提出了促进电动汽车产业发展的建议。 关键词：系统动力学；电动汽车；产业创新系统 英文摘要 Tenth Five-Year period, China has basically completed its industrialization of electric vehicles ready. After three rounds of development, initially formed the industrial chain of electric vehicles, electric vehicles, products, and the commercialization of the process of continuous improvement in the adjustment. At present, electric vehicles are being run throughout the trial. There is every indication that Chinas electric vehicle technology industry has come to the door. Electric vehicle industry is the worlds advanced level of Chinas catch-up a shortcut; from the energy point of view, the development of electric vehicle industry is the promotion of effective measures for sustainable development. This paper studies the principle of the system dynamics method and its application, combined with the basic concepts of system dynamics, modeling theory, modeling and simulation of these steps to create the electric car industry innovation system dynamics model, the use of simulation software Vesim operation and sensitivity analysis, concluded that the adoption of the final results and to make appropriate policy recommendations. Research results show that: electric automobile industry talent to become the key to rapid development of the industry; government control is an important factor in industrial innovation to promote electric vehicles; entreprene