心理学、风险和投资(1).pptxVIP

Psychology, Risk and InvestmentDaniel Kahneman, PhDPrinceton University  The standard theory The rational agent of economic theory: has consistent opinions and beliefs uses all available information unbiased by emotion, ‘herd’ effects has coherent preferences tangible motives (wealth, security) unaffected by ‘framing’ of problems Behavioral FinanceInputs from psychologyCognitive errorsEmotional factorsOur agenda todayBold forecasts -- errors in judging the odds Narrow framing of decisionsLoss aversion -- errors in valuing risksFocus on individual investors…. But experts are not immune Bold Forecasts—Optimism BiasRosy view of likely outcomes Becoming rich and famous Becoming an alcoholic Having cancer Exaggeration of skills 80-90% are above median Driving skill Sense of humor Bold Forecasts—Optimism Bias (continued)Illusion of controlExaggerate element of skillDeny the role of chanceOptimism about specific choicesWhy do people open a restaurant where many restaurants have failed? OverconfidenceMake a HIGH estimate of the exchange rate on 1/1/04 You should be 99% sure that your estimate is too highMake a LOW estimate of the exchange rate on 1/1/04 You should be 99% sure that your estimate is too low Overconfidence (continued)You should be 98% sure that the true value will fall inside your confidence intervalYou should have a probability of 2% that the outcome will be a surprise at the 2% level Overconfidence (continued) FACT: massive overconfidence Often 20% surprises at the 2% level 10-15% surprises when “absolutely sure” CAUSE: Limited imagination Surprises occur in many unlikely ways RESULT: underestimation of uncertainty Optimistic Overconfidence in the Market Why do you think YOU can beat the market?The cost of having ideas (Terry Odean’s research) When an investor sells a stock and immediately buys another: the stock that is sold does better by 3.5% in the following year Framing: different ways to thin