全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅴ.docVIP

全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅴ 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响? 中国农业科学 201043 12 2477-2484 Scientia Agricultura Sinica doi 103864jissn12011 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响 ?气候变暖对中国热带作物种植北界和寒害风险的影响分析 13 1 1 2 李 勇 杨晓光 王文峰 陈 阜 1 2 3 中国农业大学资源与环境学院北京 100193 中国农业大学农学与生物技 术学院北京 100193 贵州省气象局科技减灾处贵阳 550002 摘要目的以 1981 年为界把从 20 世纪 50 年代到 2007 年划分为两个时段对比分析 1950s1980 年 和年热带作物安全种植北界的地理位移以及北界位移后界限变化敏感区域的寒害风险方法利用 中国种植制度分区标准和农业气候指标对比分析两个时段热带作物种植北界的演变特征并采用ArcGIS绘制了 热带作物种植北界地理位移图利用综合寒害指数对气候变暖背景下热带作物安全种植北界位移后的敏感区域进 行寒害风险评估结果与1950s1980年相在80气候保证率下中国热带作物安全种植北界 北移了086个纬度且年代际变化显著20世纪90年代和时北界的北移速率每年分别达003 和006个纬度在80气候保证率下热带作物安全种植北界北移后敏感区域的寒害风险比非敏感区域要高出30 倍而重度以上寒害风险比非敏感区域要高出35倍结论在全球气候变 暖背景下中国热带作物安全种植北 界发生了明显北移且北移速率呈加快趋势在热带作物安全种植北界地 理位移后的敏感区域寒害风险增加 关键词气候变暖热带作物种植北界寒害风险 The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China ? The Possible Effects of Climate Warming on Geographical Shift in Safe Northern Limit of Tropical Crops and the Risk Analysis of Cold Damage in China 13 1 1 2 LI Yong YANG Xiao-guang WANG Wen-feng CHEN Fu 1 2 College of Resources and Environmental Science China Agricultural University Beijing 100193 College of Agronomy and Biotechnology China Agricultural University Beijing 100193 3Technology and Disaster Reduction Division of Guizhou Meterological Bureau Guiyang 550002 Abstract Objective The period from 1950s to 2007 was divided into two stagesie 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007 then the geographical shift of northern limit for tropical crops and the possible risk of cold damage in the cold-sensitive areas after the shift were analyzed and compared Method Using the standard of China farming system regional planning and some agro-meteorological indicators the geographical shift of safe northern limit were compared and analyzed and the change map were draw by ArcGIS Using the synthesized index of cold damage the risks of cold damage in sensitive area of planting tropical crops were evaluated Result Compared with the results during the period f