IMF-高负债是否制约货币政策？来自通胀预期的证据（英）-2023.6-33页.docxVIP

Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations WP/23/143 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023 JUN ? 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/143 IMF Working Paper Monetary and Capital Markets and Western Hemisphere Departments Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations Prepared by Luis Brandao-Marques, Marco Casiraghi, Gaston Gelos, Olamide Harrison, and Gunes Kamber* Authorized for distribution by David Hofman June 2023 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper examines whether high government debt levels pose a challenge to containing inflation. It does so by assessing the impact of government debt surprises on inflation expectations in advanced- and emerging market economies. It finds that debt surprises raise long-term inflation expectations in emerging market economies in a persistent way, but not in advanced economies. The effects are stronger when initial debt levels are already high, when inflation levels are initially high, and when debt dollarization is significant. By contrast, debt surprises have only modest effects in economies with inflation targeting regimes. Increased debt levels may complicate the fight against inflation in emerging market economies with high and dollarized debt levels, and weaker monetary policy frameworks. RECOMMENDED CITATION: JEL Classification Numbers: E31, E41, E