IMF-令人不快的惊喜？选举与税务新闻冲击（英）-2023.6-35页.docxVIP

Unpleasant Surprises? Elections and Tax News Shocks Antonio C. David and Can Sever WP/23/139 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023 JUN * The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. The authors would like to thank Hicham Bennouna, Costas Christou, Era Dabla-Norris, Luc Eyraud, Edward Gemayel, Kouame Desire Kanga, Moustapha Mbohou Mama, Andualem Mengistu, Jaroslaw Wieczorek and Peter Wankuru for useful discussions and feedback. The authors are also grateful to the participants of the IMF Seminar at the African Department for helpful suggestions. All errors are our own. ? 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/ 139 IMF Working Paper African Department Unpleasant Surprises? Elections and Tax News Shocks Antonio C. David and Can Sever* Authorized for distribution by Edward Gemayel June 2023 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Unanticipated changes in tax policy are likely to have different macroeconomic effects compared to anticipated changes due to several mechanisms, including fiscal foresight and policy uncertainty. It is therefore important to understand what drives such policy surprises. We explore the nature of unanticipated tax policy changes by focusing on a political economy determinant of those events, namely the timing of elections. Using monthly data for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets over the period 1990-