2022.6-瑞信-全球投资策略-大盘股银行2022年年中展望-从希望到恐惧-在基本面强劲的情况下-83页.pdfVIP

Large Cap Banks Mid-Year Outlook From Hope to Fear (amidst fundamental strength) June 2022 Equity Research Americas Research Analysts Susan Roth Katzke Jill Shea Nicole Abelev Managing Director Large Cap Banks Large Cap Banks Associate Head of U.S. Banks Research 212.325.8104 212.538.2369 212.325.1237 jill.shea@ nicole.abelev@ susan.katzke@ DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Large Cap Banks: Mid-Year 2022 Outlook Table of Contents  Key Themes: From Hope to Fear (amidst fundamental strength) (pages 3-5)  Macro Risk Rising (pages 6- 12) – Key indicators; banking fundamentals and scenario analysis  Capital Requirements and the Regulatory Agenda (pages 13-23) – CCAR 2022, GSIB surcharge increases and AOCI risk in focus – Evolution of the regulatory framework  Perspective on Valuation (pages 24-32)  No Two Cycles are the Same, Not for the Economy and Certainly Not for the Banks – The Rate Cycle: from NII and NIM expansion to deposit flows and beta (pages 33-36) – The Credit Cycle: historical perspective and the benefit of the Banks’ decade of