BDA-凯雷投资友宝自动售货机商业尽职调查研究EN-2015 04 08.pdfVIP

BDACommercialDueDiligenceReportonUnix

PreparedbyBDA

April82015

ExecutiveSummary:MarketandCompetitionDynamics

•WeestimatethemarketceilingfortheChinesebeverageVEMbusinesstobe320K(~6xfornow),withschoolsandfactories

beingthemajorscenarios(~70%).

–TheinstallationsizeofChineseVEMmarkethasreached67Kin2014,withbeverageVEMbeingthemajority(51K).

–WeseeChina’scurrentcommercialenvironmentisfavorableforVEM’srapidgrowthinthenextfewyears,buttheVEMbusinessis

stillexposedtotherisksofCVScompetitionandpolicydynamicsinthemid-to-longterm(after2020).

–TheVEMdensityisexpectedtoreach1,000by2020F(vs.500/100inTaiwan/Japan),indicatingamarketceilingof320K.

•Webelievethepotentialcompetitionthreatisrelativelylimited.

–Currently,independentoperatorsdominatetheChineseVEMmarket(90%m/s),withUnixbeingthelargest(23K),followedby

Miyuan(11K).Unixhassignificantadvantagesintransportationhubs,officebuildings,andschools,butfacesintensecompetitionin

factoriesandothersites.ComparedwithitskeycompetitorMiyuan(3%OPM),Unixislosingmoneyinitsretailbusiness(-20%

OPM),givenitshigherrental,DAandGAexpenses;whileUnixispioneeringnewbusinessmodelstogenerateadditional

revenue,Miyuanisconservativeintermsofinnovation

–Lookingforward,weseethepotentialthreatfromcompetitorsisrelativelylimited:1)theVEMbusinessofChinesebeverage

companiesismanagedonafairscale,andisunlikelytoaggressivelyexpandduetopoorprofitability;2)ExistingVEMoperators

remainconservativeregardingtheextendedbusinessmodel;3)Fornewentrants,copyingtheinfrastructureistechnicallyfeasible,

buttherealbarrieristheoperationknow-howandtheadvantagesoflarge-scaleoperation

•WeforecasttheChineseVEMmarketwill