chap010-Prospective-Analysis(财务报表分析-台湾中兴大学).ppt

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chap010-Prospective-Analysis(财务报表分析-台湾中兴大学).ppt

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10CHAPTERProspectiveAnalysisMcGraw-Hill/Irwin?2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.

ProspectiveAnalysisImportanceSecurityValuation-freecashflowandresidualincomemodelsrequireestimatesoffuturefinancialstatements.ManagementAssessment-forecastsoffinancialperformanceexaminetheviabilityofcompanies’strategicplans.AssessmentofSolvency-prospectiveanalysisisusefultocreditorstoassessacompany’sabilitytomeetdebtservicerequirements,bothshort-termandlong-term.

TheProjectionProcessProjectedIncomeStatementSalesforecastsareafunctionof:HistoricaltrendsExpectedlevelofmacroeconomicactivityThecompetitivelandscape4) Strategicinitiativesofmanagement

TheProjectionProcessProjectedIncomeStatementSteps:ProjectsalesProjectcostofgoodssoldandgrossprofitmarginsusinghistoricalaveragesasapercentofsalesProjectSGAexpensesusinghistoricalaveragesasapercentofsalesProjectdepreciationexpenseasanhistoricalaveragepercentageofbeginning-of-yeardepreciableassetsProjectinterestexpenseasapercentofbeginning-of-yearinterest-bearingdebtusingexistingratesiffixedandprojectedratesifvariable6) Projecttaxexpenseasanaverageofhistoricaltaxexpensetopre-taxincome

TheProjectionProcessTargetCorporationProjectedIncomeStatementSales:$43,115=$39,888X1.0809Grossprofit:$13,665=$43,115X31.69%Costofgoodssold:$29,450=$43,115-$13,665SGA:$9,602=$43,115X22.27%Depreciation:$1,263=$18,442(beginning-of-periodPPEgross)X6.85%Interest:$578=$8,088(beginning-of-periodinterest-bearingdebt)X7.15%Pretaxincome:$2,222=$13,665-$9,602-$1,263-$578Extraordinaryanddiscontinueditems:none9) Netincome:$1,378=$2,222-$844

TheProjectionProcessProjectedIncomeStatement

TheProjectionProcessProjectedBalanceSheetSteps:Projectcurrentassetsotherthancash,usingprojectedsalesorcostofgoodssoldandappropriateturnoverratiosasdes