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QuantitativeModule–QuantitativeDecision-MakingAids
PAGE
QM-PAGE77
Copyright?2017PearsonEducation,Inc.
QUANTITATIVE
MODULE
QUANTITATIVEDECISION-MAKINGAIDS
Inthestudyofthismodule,theauthorsintroducepayoffmatrices,decisiontrees,break-evenanalysis,ratioanalysis,linearprogramming,queuingtheory,andeconomicorderquantity.Thepurposeofeachmethodistoprovidemanagerswithatooltoassistinthedecisionmakingprocessandtoprovidemorecompleteinformationtomakebetter-informeddecisions.
PayoffMatrices
Uncertaintyisasituationinwhichthedecisionmakerisnotcertainandcannotevenmakereasonableprobabilityestimatesconcerningtheoutcomesofalternatives.
Thechoiceofalternativeisinfluencedbythelimitedamountofinformationavailabletothedecisionmaker.
It’salsoinfluencedbythepsychologicalorientationofthedecisionmaker.
ExampleofVisaInternational
Fourpossiblestrategiesandtheresultingprofit.(SeeExhibitQM-1.)
Anoptimisticmanagerwillfollowamaximaxchoice,maximizingthemaximumpossiblepayoff.
Apessimisticmanagerwillpursueamaximinchoice,maximizingtheminimumpossiblepayoff.
Themanagerwhodesirestominimizethemaximum“regret”willoptforaminimaxchoice.(SeeExhibitQM-2.)
DecisionTrees
Decisiontreesareausefulwaytoanalyzehiring,marketing,investment,equipmentpurchases,pricing,andsimilardecisionsthatinvolveaprogressionofdecisions.
They’recalleddecisiontreesbecause,whendiagrammed,theylookalotlikeatreewithbranches.
ExampleofHarrington,asiteselectionsupervisorofabookstore(SeeExhibitQM-3).
Theleaseonthecompany’sstoreinWinterPark,Floridaisexpiring,andthepropertyownerhasdecidednottorenewit.
FollowingtheapproachusedforDecisionPoint1,shecouldcalculatetheprofitpotentialbyextendingthebranchesonthetreeandcalculatingexpectedvaluesforthevariousoptions.
Break-evenAnalysis
Bre
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