通货膨胀与失业之间短期权衡在本章中chapter presentation35.pptxVIP

通货膨胀与失业之间短期权衡在本章中chapter presentation35.pptx

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TheShort-RunTrade-offBetweenInflationandUnemploymentEconomicsPRINCIPLESOFN.GregoryMankiwPremiumPowerPointSlides

byRonCronovich35

Inthischapter,

lookfortheanswerstothesequestions:Howareinflationandunemploymentrelatedintheshortrun?Inthelongrun?Whatfactorsalterthisrelationship?Whatistheshort-runcostofreducinginflation?WhywereU.S.inflationandunemploymentbothsolowinthe1990s?1

THESHORT-RUNTRADE-OFF2IntroductionInthelongrun,inflationunemploymentareunrelated:Theinflationratedependsmainlyongrowthinthemoneysupply.Unemployment(the“naturalrate”)dependsontheminimumwage,themarketpowerofunions,efficiencywages,andtheprocessofjobsearch.OneoftheTenPrinciples:

Intheshortrun,societyfacesatrade-off

betweeninflationandunemployment.

THESHORT-RUNTRADE-OFF3ThePhillipsCurvePhillipscurve:showstheshort-runtrade-offbetweeninflationandunemployment1958:A.W.Phillipsshowedthat

nominalwagegrowthwasnegatively

correlatedwithunemploymentintheU.K.1960:PaulSamuelsonRobertSolowfound

anegativecorrelationbetweenU.S.inflation

unemployment,namedit“thePhillipsCurve.”

THESHORT-RUNTRADE-OFF4DerivingthePhillipsCurveSupposeP=100thisyear.Thefollowinggraphsshowtwopossibleesfornextyear:A. Aggdemandlow,

smallincreaseinP(i.e.,lowinflation),

lowoutput,highunemployment.B. Aggdemandhigh,

bigincreaseinP(i.e.,highinflation),

highoutput,lowunemployment.

THESHORT-RUNTRADE-OFF5DerivingthePhillipsCurveu-rateinflationPCA.Lowaggdemand,lowinflation,highu-rateB.Highaggdemand,highinflation,lowu-rateYPSRASAD1AD2Y1103A105Y2B6%3%A4%5%B

THESHORT-RUNTRADE-OFF6ThePhillipsCurve:APolicyMenu?Sincefiscalandmonpolicyaffectaggdemand,

thePCappearedtoofferpolicymakersamenu

ofchoices:lowunemploymentwithhighinflationlowinflationwithhighunemploymentanyth

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