AI改变战争的性质-TE.pdf

AIwilltransformthecharacterofwarfare

/leaders/2024/06/20/war-and-ai

THECOMPUTERwasborninwarandbywar.Colossus

wasbuiltin1944tocrackNazicodes.Bythe1950s

computerswereorganisingAmerica’sairdefences.In

thedecadesthatfollowed,machineintelligenceplayed

asmallpartinwarfare.Nowitisabouttobecome

pivotal.Justasthecivilianworldiswitnessingrapid

progressinthepowerandspreadofartificial

intelligence(AI),sotoomustthemilitaryworld

prepareforanonrushofinnovation.Asmuchasit

transformsthecharacterofwar,itcouldalsoprove

destabilising.

HECOMPUTER诞⽣于战争和战争中。Colossus建于

1944年，旨在破解纳粹密码。到1950年代，计算机正

在组织美国的防空系统。在随后的⼏⼗年⾥，机器智能

在战争中发挥了很⼩的作⽤。现在，它即将变得⾄关重

要。正如民⽤世界正在见证⼈⼯智能（AI）的⼒量和传

播的快速进步⼀样，军事世界也必须为创新的浪潮做好

准备。尽管它改变了战争的性质，但它也可能破坏稳

定。

Today’srapidchangehasseveralcauses.Oneisthe

crucibleofwaritself,mostnotablyinUkraine.Small,

inexpensivechipsroutinelyguideRussianand

Ukrainiandronestotheirtargets,scalingupa

technologyonceconfinedtoasuperpower’smissiles.A

secondistherecentexponentialadvanceofAI,

enablingastonishingfeatsofobjectrecognitionand

higher-orderproblemsolving.Athirdistherivalry

betweenAmericaandChina,inwhichbothseeAIas

thekeytomilitarysuperiority.

今天的快速变化有⼏个原因。⼀个是战争本⾝的熔炉，

尤其是在乌克兰。⼩型、廉价的芯⽚通常会引导俄罗斯

和乌克兰的⽆⼈机到达⽬标，从⽽扩⼤曾经仅限于超级

⼤国导弹的技术。其次是⼈⼯智能最近的指数级发展，

实现了物体识别和⾼阶问题解决的惊⼈壮举。第三是美

国和中国之间的竞争，双⽅都认为⼈⼯智能是军事优势

的关键。

Theresultsaremostvisibleintheadvanceof

intelligentkillingmachines.Aerialandnavaldrones

havebeenvitaltobothsidesinUkraineforspotting

andattackingtargets.AI’sroleisasthesolutionto

jamming,becauseitenablesadronetohomeinon

targets,evenifgpssignalsorthelinktothepilothave

beencut.Breakingtheconnectionbetweenpilotand

planeshouldsoonletarmiesdeployfarlarger

numbersoflow-costmunitions.Eventuallyself-

directingswarmswillbedes