石油黑金将回归常态世界更加安全.docxVIP

石油黑金将回归常态,世界更加安全

In2007ImadeabetwithafellowRussianbusinessman.Thepriceofoil,hetoldme,wouldneverdropbelow$80again.Thiswastheconsensusamongoilmenatthetime.Andthat,Ithought,wasthesurestsignthattheoilpricewouldsoonstartfalling.

Itoldmyacquaintancethattheoilpricecouldeasilygodownto$40.

Whatdeterminesit,Isaid,isnotsupply,demandorthecostofproduction.Rather,whatmattersisthemereperceptionofapotentialshortage.

Thepriceofoilstayedhighonlybecausepeoplebelievedtherewasnotenoughofittogoaround.Butoncepeoplebelievethat,consumersstartlookingforanalternativewhileproducerstrytopumpmoreofthestuff—andthenpricesfall.

IamnotaprofessionaloilmanandmyassumptionswerebasednotonknowledgeofgeologyortherateofeconomicgrowthinChina,butonthesimplefactthathumanityusuallyfindsawayaroundanyobstacleinitspath.

WhilemanyofmycolleaguesinRussiaandelsewherearearguingaboutwhentheoilpricemaybounceback,Iamconvincedthatwehaveenteredanewperiodoflowoilprices.Itislikealchemy,butinreverse:blackgold,aprecioussubstancewhosepricewasdeterminedbyitsscarcity,hasturnedintoablack,smellyliquidthatmakeswheelsturn.Itisnotthefirsttimethishashappened.Thepriceofoilwasrelativelystableuntilthe1970sbroughtthepsychologicalshockofanembargoimposedbySaudiArabiaontheexportofoiltoAmerica.

In1975,theUSstarteditspetroleumstrategicreserve,contributingtotheperceptionthatoilwasscarce.Oilproducerssawtheirmainobjectivewastoguardtheiroligopoly.

Noonecaredaboutsuchtriflingmattersasefficiency—thedistributionoflicenceswasfarmoreimportant.Agoodlobbyistwasworthmoretoanoilcompanythanagoodengineer.Todealwiththischallenge,developedcountriesstartedtoinvestinenergysavingandnewtechnologies,andbytheearly1980sthisstar