可编辑培训课件-券商行业2024年投资策略分析报告：供给侧改革，后续投资主线.pptx

2

?表1：2023年，23家上市券商调整后营收同比+0.62%（单位：百万元）注：调整后营业收入=营业收入-其他业务成本；数据：公司公告，证券研究3

?4

?5

?12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00000.0350%0.0300%0.0250%0.0200%0.0150%0.0100%0.09000%0.08000%0.07000%0.06000%0.05000%0.04000%0.03000%0.02000%0.01000%0.00000%14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00000.0205%日均股基交易额（亿元）佣金率新发基金规模（亿元）净佣金率6

?6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00004.00%14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00002.00%0.00%-2.00%-4.00%-6.00%-8.00%-10.00%股票承销合计（亿元）股票承销费率核心债券发行合计（亿元）7

?80.0070.0060.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.002019Q12019H2019Q320192020Q12020H2020Q320202021Q12021H2021Q320212022Q12022H2022Q320222023Q12023H2023Q32023资产管理业务规模（万亿元）8

?2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,00080060040020000.30%0.25%0.20%0.15%0.10%0.05%0.00%融资融券余额（十亿元）两融余额占流通市值比例证券公司股票质押业务规模（亿元）9

?6,5006,0005,5005,0004,5004,0003,5002252202152102052003000025000200001500010000500001952022-01-042023-01-042022-01-042023-01-04互换场外期权10

?11

?12

?13

14

?????????????15

??????????????16

?25201510502017201820192020摩根士丹利中信证券2021证盛17

?指标拆分国际一流投行我国头部券商对ROE之差的贡献ROE10.72%22.30%65.97%36.55%4.17%1.74%3.15%1.54%91.16%42.17%8.91%25.15%16.94%11.388.34%37.75%50.59%34.45%4.64%2.21%3.65%1.83%78.88%47.21%21.20%15.58%12.10%4.862.38%-7.34%-7.31%-1.00%-2.00%-4.74%-5.07%2.73%-2.29%2.40%-5.86%4.56%2.31%11.42%18.36%-6.63%净利润率管理费率薪酬及福利费率资产周转率重资产收入/总资产重资产总收入/总资产利息支出/总负债资产负债率重资产收入/营业收入经纪业务收入资管业务收入投行业务收入杆杆率总资产净资产8207998131681825318

?13.007.006.005.004.003.002.001.000.0012.5012.0011.5011.0010.5010.009.5020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023高盛摩根士丹利中信19

?350%300%250%200%150%100%50%50.00%45.00%40.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%0%201520162017201820192020202120222023中国美国2017201820192020202120222023美国总市值/GDP中国总市值/GDP20

?403530252015105100-10-20-30-40-500ROE（%）监管落实后（%）流动性利率结构化利率缓解后（%）流动信用外汇结构化信用结构化权衍商品权益现货自营投资流动性权衍沪深300中证500中证1000微盘指数主经纪商资本市场合计21

?100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%100%80%60%40%20%0%20172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023经纪业务收入投行业务收入利息收入资管业务收