章机会规则描述一个过程概率模型tps5e ch5.pptx

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2024-08-18 发布于北京
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章机会规则描述一个过程概率模型tps5e ch5.pptx

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CHAPTER5

Probability:WhatAretheChances?

5.2ProbabilityRules

DESCRIBEaprobabilitymodelforachanceprocess.USEbasicprobabilityrules,includingthecomplementruleandtheadditionruleformutuallyexclusiveevents.USEatwo-waytableorVenndiagramtoMODELachanceprocessandCALCULATEprobabilitiesinvolvingtwoevents.USEthegeneraladditionruletoCALCULATEprobabilities.ProbabilityRules

ProbabilityModelsInSection5.1,weusedsimulationtoimitatechancebehavior.Fortunately,wedon’thavetoalwaysrelyonsimulationstodeterminetheprobabilityofaparticulare.Descriptionsofchancebehaviorcontaintwoparts:ThesamplespaceSofachanceprocessisthesetofallpossiblees.Aprobabilitymodelisadescriptionofsomechanceprocessthatconsistsoftwoparts:asamplespaceSandaprobabilityforeache.

Example:BuildingaprobabilitymodelSampleSpace36OutcomesSincethedicearefair,eachoutcomeisequallylikely.Eachoutcomehasprobability1/36.

ProbabilityModelsProbabilitymodelsallowustofindtheprobabilityofanycollectionofes.Aneventisanycollectionofesfromsomechanceprocess.Thatis,aneventisasubsetofthesamplespace.Eventsareusuallydesignatedbycapitalletters,likeA,B,C,andsoon.IfAisanyevent,wewriteitsprobabilityasP(A).Inthedice-rollingexample,supposewedefineeventAas“sumis5.”Thereare4esthatresultinasumof5.Sinceeachehasprobability1/36,P(A)=4/36.SupposeeventBisdefinedas“sumisnot5.”WhatisP(B)?P(B)=1–4/36=32/36

BasicRulesofProbabilityTheprobabilityofanyeventisanumberbetween0and1.Allpossibleestogethermusthaveprobabilitieswhosesumisexactly1.Ifallesinthesamplespaceareequallylikely,theprobabilitythateventAoccurscanbefoundusingtheformulaTheprobabilitythataneventdoesnotoccuris1minustheprobabilitythattheeventdoesoccur.Iftwoeventshavenoesincommon,theprob