课件成果章概率chapter 2 probability2.pdfVIP

Chapter2Probabilities

1.Astudenthasrequestedforatestimonialtoapplyforajob.Sheestimatesthatthereis

an80%chanceofgettingthejobifshereceivesanexcellenttestimonial,a40%chance

ifshereceivesamoderatelygoodtestimonialanda10%chanceifshereceivesafair

testimonial.Shefurtherestimatesthattheprobabilitiesthatthetestimonialwillbe

excellent,moderateorfairare0.7,0.2and0.1respectively.

i)Drawatreediagramtoillustratetheinformationandcalculatetheexactprobabilityof

thestudentgettingthejob.

ii)Giventhatshereceivesthejoboffer,whatistheexactprobabilitythatshereceivedan

excellenttestimonial?

iii)Giventhatshedidnotreceiveamoderatetestimonial,whatistheexactprobabilitythat

shedidnotreceiveajoboffer?

iv)Iftherearenstudents,whohavetheexactsamechanceofobtainingthekindof

testimonialsasthisstudent,whatistheprobabilityofatleast1studentobtainingan

excellenttestimonial?Leaveyouranswerintermsofn.

P(studentgettingajob)=(0.7)(0.8)+(0.2)(0.4)+(0.1)(0.1)0.65

P(studentreceivedexcellenttestimonial|shereceivedjoboffer)

P(studentreceivedexcellenttestimonialandjoboffer)(0.7)(0.8)56

P(shereceivedajoboffer)0.6565

P(studentdoesnotreceivejoboffer|shedidnotreceiveamodesttestimonial)

P(studentreceivedanexcellentorfairtestimonialandnojoboffer)

P(shedidnotreceiveamoderatetestimonial)

(0.7)(0.2)+(0.1)(0.9)23