2025全球经济展望报告+ING+Global+Outlook.docx

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2025全球经济展望报告+ING+Global+Outlook.docx

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THINKEconomicandFinancialAnalysis

INGGlobalOutlook

December2024

Economics,actually.

Our2025hitlist

/THINK

INGGlobalOutlookDecember2024

Economics,actually:Our2025hitlist

‘Love,Actually’remainsafirmfestivefilm,butitsthemesandcoremessagenow

appeardatedand,attimes,alittleshocking.AsDonaldTrumppreparestore-enter

theWhiteHouse,Europecontinuestostrugglewithstagnation,andconflictcontinuestorage,Iarguethat,abitlikethemovie,globaleconomiesreallyneedtomoveon

Overthelastfiveyears,everysingleyearhasbroughtenougheconomicandpoliticalactionyouusedtoseeinadecade.2024wasnodifferent.Wehadarecordnumberofelectionswherewereseeingtheriseofpopulism,centralbanksu-turnedandslashedrates,andweeconomistsweregivenasharpreminderthatthereare,indeed,both

cyclicalandstructuralelementstogrowth.

Welearntalottoo.InChina,thecorrectionofarealestatebubblereallydoestake

years,notmonths.IntheUS,inflationcancomedownbutcostscanremainhigh.Andthoselivingcostscandecideelections,notGDPgrowthorthespeedofjobcreation.Itsnolongertheeconomy,stupid,butinflation,stupid.

Heresanotherlearning:itsallverywellforcentralbankerstopatthemselvesonthebackformanagingasoftlandingwithratehikes,butmygoodness,welearntthat

theyrestillfarawayfromordinarypeopleslives.And,hey,Europe!Didyouforgetthat

agradualweakeningofcompetitivenesswilltakeitstollontheeconomy?Imparticularlylookingatyou,Germany.

TheheadydaysoftheOlympics,whichapparentlyintheeurozonealwaystendtoendwithapublicfinancebang-firstinGreece,nowinFrance-seemanawfullylongtimeago.So,whatdowehavetolookforwardtonextyear?

ItjustsohappensIwasrewatchingthatChristmasfavourite,Love,Actually,overtheweekend.Iknow,Imasoftieatheart.Anditstartedd