【研报】欧洲央行-CBDC宏观经济建模：批判性回顾（英）-2024.docx

UlrichBindseil,RichardSenner

WorkingPaperSeries

MacroeconomicmodellingofCBDC:acriticalreview

No

No2978

Disclaimer:ThispapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheECB.

ECB

ECBWorkingPaperSeriesNo2978

PAGE10

Abstract

Overthelastdecades,macro-economistshaverenewedtheireffortstoreducethegapbetweenmonetarymacroeconomicsandreal-worldcentralbanking.Thispaperreviewshowmacroeconomicshassince2016approachedthepossibleintroductionofretailcentralbankdigitalcurrencies(CBDC).AreviewoftheliteraturerevealsthatmacroeconomicmodelsofCBDCoftenrelyonCBDCdesignfeaturesandnarrativeswhicharenolongerinlinewiththeoneofcentralbanksactuallyworkingonCBDC.Inparticular,theliteratureoften(i)doesnottakeintoaccountthenatureofcentralbanks’CBDCissuanceplansasa“conservative”reactiontoprofoundtechnologicalandpreferentialshiftsintheuseofmoneyasameansofpayments,(ii)doesnotstartfromdesignfeaturescommunicatedbycentralbanks,suchasno-remuneration,quantitylimits,accessrestrictions,andautomatedsweepingfunctionalitylinkingCBDCwalletswithcommercialbankaccounts;(iii)doesnotexplainwellenoughthedifferencebetweenCBDCandbanknoteswithintheirmacro-economicmodels,apartfromremuneration(whichcentralbanksactuallydonotforesee);and(iv)assumethatCBDCwillleadtoasignificantincreaseinthetotalholdingsofcentralbankmoneyintheeconomy,although(i)and(ii)makethisunlikely.

JELClassification:E3;E5;G1

KeyWords:centralbankdigitalcurrencies;macroeconomics;financialstability;centralbankmoney

Non-technicalsummary

Thedigitalizationoflargepartsofeverydaylifeandoftheeconomyalsoextendstopaymenttransactions.Intheeuroarea,forexample,theshareofcashpaymen