【研报】欧洲央行-信贷冲击对住房和租赁市场的总体和分布影响（英）-2024.docx

JuanCastellanos,AndrewHannon,

GonzaloPaz-Pardo

WorkingPaperSeries

Theaggregateanddistributionalimplicationsofcreditshocksonhousingandrentalmarkets

No

No2977

Disclaimer:ThispapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheECB.

ECB

ECBWorkingPaperSeriesNo2977

PAGE10

Abstract:Webuildamodeloftheaggregatehousingandrentalmarketsinwhichhousepricesandrentsaredeterminedendogenously.Householdscanchoosetheirhousingtenurestatus(renters,homeowners,orlandlords)andthesizeoftheirhomesdependingontheirage,incomeandwealth.Weuseourmodeltostudytheimpactofchangesincreditconditionsonhouseprices,rentsandhouseholdwelfare.Weanalysetheintroductionofpoliciesthatlimitedloan-to-value(LTV)andloan-to-income(LTI)ratiosofnewlyoriginatedmortgagesinIrelandin2015andfindthat,consistentwithempiricalevidence,theymitigatehousepricegrowthbutincreaserents.Homeownershipratesdrop,andyoungandmiddle-incomehouseholdsarenegativelyaffectedbythereform.Anunexpectedpermanentriseinrealinterestrateshassimilareffects–bymakingmortgagesmoreexpensiveandalternativeinvestmentsmoreattractiveforlandlords,itincreasesrentsrelativetohouseprices.

Keywords:HousePrices,RentalPrices,Homeownership,Life-cycle,CreditConditions,Macro-prudentialPolicy

JELclassification:D15,E21,E30,E51,G51

Non-technicalsummary

HousingrepresentsalargeshareofhouseholdwealthformosthouseholdsintheeuroareaandtheUnitedStates.Forhouseholdswhodonotownahouseandliveasrenters,housing-relatedexpensesrepresentasignificantpartoftheirconsumptionbudgets.Ontheotherhand,mosthomeownersbuytheirhousesbyacquiringamortgagethatfrequentlyrepresentstheequivalenttoseveralyearsoftheirincome.

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