【16页PPT】波士顿互联网战略资料.pptVIP

STRATEGYANDTHEINTERNET:

TRENDSANDPREDICTIONSRealTechConferencePeterStanger

EMERCEISDEAD“EmerceIsDead,LongLiveEmerce”TheIndustryStandard,April2000“Going,Going,Gone:Business-to-ConsumerSectorGoesBust”Forbes,April2000“Canyoubuildabrandonlinesellingthird-partygoods?Theanswerisno,eventhougheveryoneusedtothinktheanswerwasyes”BryanRutbert,WarburgDillonRead“Thelivingdeadhavegottenawaywithmurderbecausethepublicmarketshavefundedriskierventures.LookatAmazon-ifcouldbethebiggestlivingdeadthepublicmarketshaveeverseen.”WarrenPackard,DraperFisherJurvetson

TOMSIEBEL

CEO,SiebelSystems“Ifyoucan’tgenerateprofits,significantmarketshareandcustomersatisfaction,youreoutofbusiness.”“OntheB2Bexchangeside,Idon’tthinkanyonewillsurvive.Theyareallgone.”

THECAPITALMARKETSHADITALLWRONGTravelocityBarnsandnobelExpediaDrugstoreEggheadPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAllOther$11.4B

ISTHEREVOLUTIONOVER?

July28,1794

THEBUMPYRIDEOFECONOMICREVOLUTIONS1860--1925

FUNDAMENTALFORCESAREATWORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkersperbushelofmanufacturedcottonEngland1770-83PriceoftheModelTtouringcar1908-20191019151920198519901995PriceofCPUputingpower$/MIPS1982-95Lowerprocessingcosts...…withincreasedthroughput...Fiber

capacityTime1050104103102…andpowerfulnetworkeconomics020406080100012345678910nValueincreasesasthesquareofconnectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+2cF+3cF+4cF+5cF+6cF+7cF+8cF+9cF+10cF+ncValue,

costConnectionsCostincreaseslinearlywithconnections…lowerstoragecosts...$/MBAverageHDsizeinPCatretail(GB)Harddrivesize(GB)Cost

($/MB)

LONGDISTANCEWholesale(Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccountmanagementBillingRetailSales/marketingAccountmanagementBillingNetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResal