2025 年印度如何在线购物_how_india_shops_online_2025.docxVIP

HowIndiaShopsOnline2025

Evolvingshopperhabitsandbusinessmodelsarereshapingthee-retailmarket.

Flipkart|BainCompany,Inc.

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HowIndiaShopsOnline2025

Executivesummary

Indiahasbecomearetailpowerhouseoverthelastdecade,ascendingtothethirdlargestretail

marketgloballyin2024.TheIndiane-retailmarkethassurgedtoapproximately$60billioningrossmerchandisevalue(GMV),boastingtheworld’ssecond-largestonlineshopperbase.

India’sconsumptionanddiscretionaryspendinghavefacedheadwindsinrecentyears,withprivateconsumptiongrowthslowingfrom11%pre-Covid(2017–19)to~8%post-Covid(2022–24).Thisdeclineisdrivenbyhigherinflationandastagnationofrealwages.Thestressinconsumptionisevidentin

e-retailgrowthin2024being10%–12%,comparedtohistoricalgrowthratesofover20%.

However,therecentfiscalandmonetarypolicyinterventionsareexpectedtodriveareboundin

e-retailgrowth,especiallyfromthefestiveperiodof2025,onaccountofrevivalintheconsumptioncycle.Long-termmarketfundamentalsremainrobust,withe-retailprojectedtoexceed18%growthoverthenextsixyears,reachinganestimated$170–$190billioninGMV,withnearly1in10retail

dollarsspentone-retailby2030.ThisgrowthwillbefueledbyincreaseddiscretionaryspendingasIndia’spercapitaGDPsurpasses$3,500–$4,000—acrucialtippingpointunlockingdiscretionaryande-retailspendingglobally.StatesinIndiawithpercapitaGDPabove$3,500alreadyexhibit1.2timeshighere-retailpenetrationthanotherregions.

High-frequencycategoriessuchasgrocery,lifestyle,andgeneralmerchandisewilldrivee-retail

growth,accountingfortwooutofeverythreedollarsspentone-retailby2030.Thesecategoriesaresettoseeatwo-tofourfoldincreaseine-retailpenetrationoverthisperiod.

GrowthwillcontinuetoreshapeIndia’sshoppinglandscape.UseradoptionisalreadyspreadingfromTier-2toTier