国会预算办公室-国会预算办公室对2017年税法的估计：增长和收入（英）-2025.9-17页.pdf

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CBO’sEstimatesofthe2017

TaxAct:GrowthandRevenues

September18,2025

Presentationatthe40thAnnualNationalBureauofEconomicResearch

TaxPolicyandtheEconomyConference

PhillipL.Swagel

Director

TheseslideswerepreparedinconjunctionwithremarksbyPhillipSwagel,CBO’sDirector,atthe40thAnnualNationalBureauofEconomicResearchTaxPolicyandtheEconomy

Conference.Forinformationabouttheconference,see/conferences/40th-annual-nber-tax-policy-and-economy-conference-2025.

Introduction

ThenexteditionoftheCongressionalBudgetOffice’sBudgetandEconomic

Outlookwillreflecttheimpactsofthe2025reconciliationact(PublicLaw119-21)

ontheeconomy,spending,andrevenues.Thatlawextendsmanyprovisionsof

the2017taxact(PublicLaw115-97)thathadbeenscheduledtoexpireatthe

endof2025.

Toenhanceitsfutureprojections,CBOregularlyevaluatestheaccuracyofits

pastprojections.Inthispresentation,CBOexaminestheaccuracyofits

projectionsfromApril2018,whichwerethefirsttofullyreflecttheanticipated

impactsofthe2017taxact,andexploresthereasonsfordifferencesbetween

thoseprojectionsandactualoutcomesfrom2018to2024.1

1.Allyearsreferredtoindescribingrevenueprojectionsarefederalfiscalyears,whichrunfromOctober1toSeptember30andaredesignatedbythecalendaryearinwhich

theyend.Yearsreferredtoindescribingeconomicprojectionsarecalendaryears.1

Revenuesin2018and2019

CBO’sApril2018projectionsofrevenuesin2018and2019wereremarkably

accurate.

Actualfederalrevenuesin2018and2019were99.8percentand99.2percentof

theamountsthatCBOprojected.Inotherwords,CBOwasveryslightly

overoptimisticaboutrevenuesintheyearsafterenactmentofthe2017taxact,

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