参考学习资料 AI 制作 TSRATLForecastJuly2022.pdfVIP

JulyForecastUpdateforNorth

AtlanticHurricaneActivityin2022

Issued:5thJuly2022

byAdamLeaandNickWood

EuroTempestLtd,London,UK

TSRraisesitspre-seasonforecastissuedinlateMayandpredictsNorthAtlantichurricane

activityin2022willbe20-25%abovethe1991-202030-yearnorm.However,this

outlookhasuncertaintiesandtheforecastskillatthisrangeismoderate.

Summary:TheTSR(TropicalStormRisk)JulyforecastupdateforNorthAtlantichurricaneactivityin

2022continuestoanticipateaseasonwithabove-normactivity.Althoughsignificantuncertainties

remain,weconsiderthatthemorelikelyscenarioisfortropicalNorthAtlanticandCaribbeanSeawaters

tobeslightlywarmerthannormalbyAugust-September2022,andforweakLaNiñaconditionstopersist

throughAugust-September2022andintotheautumn,contributingtoreducedtradewindsoverthe

tropicalNorthAtlanticandCaribbeanSea.BoththesefactorsareexpectedtoenhanceNorthAtlantic

hurricaneactivityin2022.SomeNiño3.4forecastmodelspredictaslightstrengtheningofthecurrent

LaNiñaconditionsthroughautumn2022,whichifverified,willincreasethechanceofenhancedlate

seasonactivity.Anadditionalfactorfavouringhighactivityin2022istheunusualearlydevelopmentof

apotentialtropicalcycloneintheAtlanticMainDevelopmentRegion(MDR)inJune.

Contents:1.TSRJuly2022NorthAtlanticseasonalhurricaneforecasts………1

1.1ForecastNorthAtlanticACEindexandsystemnumbers…..1

1.2ForecastACEindexandsystemnumbersforthetropicsonly………….2