气候公平性视角下城市洪涝风险的多维驱动机制.pdfVIP

城市空间智能与规划|51

气候公平性视角下城市洪涝风险的多维驱动机制

ClimateInequalitytoUrbanFloodingRisksDrivenbyMultidimensional

Factors

徐浩文周士奇耿汐雯徐小东XUHaowen,ZHOUShiqi,GENGXiwen,XUXiaodong

摘要随着极端降雨事件频发，城市洪涝已成为高密度城市面临的重大挑战。以粤港澳大湾区为研究对象，构建“危害—暴

露—脆弱性”框架，综合多源数据开展洪涝风险评估与资源公平性分析。采用贝叶斯优化的LightGBM-SHAP方法，揭示

关键致灾因子的变化机制；并通过Dagum基尼系数与洛伦兹曲线评估防洪安全资源的空间分配不均。结果显示：洪涝风

险呈现沿海向内陆递减格局，高风险区集中于核心城市与河网密集区；安全资源存在显著空间不平衡，新兴区域的规划

割裂与基础设施孤岛化加剧风险暴露；关键致灾因子随风险等级升高从地形—物理因素逐步转向水文—生态因素;不透

水地表率、植被覆盖率是影响洪涝总体风险的核心变量。融合风险机制解析与公平性量化评估，以期为气候适应性城市

规划提供科学支撑与政策依据。

AbstractUrbanfloodinghasemergedasasignificantchallengefordenselypopulatedcities,particularlyinthecontextofincreasingextreme

rainfallevents.ThisstudyfocusesontheGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayArea,developinga“hazard-exposure-

vulnerability”frameworktoassessfloodrisksandresourceequityusingavarietyofdatasources.ByemployingaBayesian-

optimizedLightGBM-SHAPmethod,thestudyuncoversthemechanismsunderlyingkeydisaster-inducingfactors.Additionally,

thedistributionofflooddefenseresourcesisevaluatedforspatialinequitiesusingtheDagumGinicoefficientandLorenzcurve.

Thefindingsindicatethatfloodriskdecreasesfromcoastaltoinlandareas,withhigh-riskzonesconcentratedincorecitiesand

denselyriverineregions.Thereisapronouncedspatialimbalanceintheallocationofsafetyresources,withthefragmentationof

planningandinfrastructureisolationinemergingareasexacerbatingriskexposure.Keydisasterdriversshiftfromtopographical

andphysicalfactorstohydrologicalandecologicalfactorsasrisklevelsrise.Impervioussurfacerateandvegetationcoverage

areidentifiedascriticalvariablesinflu