韩国央行-通信和点阵图对利率的影响：以韩国为例（英）-2025-72页.pdfVIP

No.2025-21

ImpactsofCommunicationand

DotPlotsonInterestRates:

theCaseofKorea

SoohyonKim,InDoHwang

2025.12

ImpactsofCommunicationandDot

PlotsonInterestRates:

theCaseofKorea

SoohyonKim*,InDoHwang**

Theviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthe

officialviewsofBankofKorea.Whenreportingorcitingthispaper,theauthors’name

shouldalwaysbeexplicitlystated.

*ChonnamNationalUniversity,soohyon.kim@jnu.ac.kr

**BankofKorea,hid@bok.or.kr,ORCID0000-0002-0799-762X

WeexpressoursinceregratitudetoEunseoKimforassistancewithtextdatapreprocessing.Wealso

thankDr.KyeongtaeLee,JinsooBae,ananonymousrefereefortheBOKWorkingPaperSeries,and

seminarparticipantsattheBankofKoreafortheirvaluablecomments.Thisresearchwasconducted

withfinancialsupportfromtheBankofKorea.Theviewsandconclusionsexpressedinthisstudyare

thoseoftheauthorsaloneanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialstanceoftheBankofKorea.

Contents

Ⅰ

.Introduction…………………1

Ⅱ

.LiteratureReview……………4

Ⅲ.MethodologicalFrameworks:IdentifyingMonetary

PolicyShocks…………………6

Ⅳ.TheImpactofDotPlotShocksandForward

CommunicationShocks…………………17

Ⅴ.Conclusion…………………37

References……………………39

Appendix

A.SentimentClassifier:TransformerModel………………42

A.1.SentimentClassifierTraining………45

ImpactsofCommunicationandDotPlotson

InterestRates:theCaseofKorea

Thisstudyexaminestheimpactofforwardguidanc