法国预测与国际信息中心-美国货币政策的全球溢出效应：来自汇款渠道的新见解（英）-2025.12-43页.pdfVIP

No2025-21–December2025WorkingPaper

GlobalSpilloversofUSMonetary

Policy:NewInsightsfromthe

RemittanceChannel

PabloAguilar-Perez

Highlights

WeshowthatUSmonetarytighteninggeneratesglobalspilloversthroughtheremittancechannel,with

outflowsfallinginsourcecountriesandamplifyingtheglobalfinancialcycle.

WeuncoveraninverseU-shapedrelationshipbetweenremittancedependenceandoutputresponses:

moderateinflowsbuffershocks,whilehighdependence(above4%ofGDP)magnifiesrecessionaryeffects.

Wedocumentstrongheterogeneitydrivenbymigrantskillcomposition:low-skilleddiasporasgenerate

pro-cyclicalremittancesandhighervulnerability,whereasskilledordiversifieddiasporasstabilize

remittanceflows.

CEPIIWorkingPaperGlobalSpilloversofUSMonearyPolicy:NewInsightsfromtheRemittanceChannel

Abstract

ThispaperexaminestheglobalspilloversofUSmonetarypolicythroughtheremittancechannel,inbothsendingand

recipientcountries.Usingadatasetcovering8remittance-sendingand41recipientcountriesfromJanuary1997to

December2017,weapplyalocalprojectionsframeworktotracethedynamiceffectsofunexpectedUSmonetary

tightening.Wefindthatremittanceoutflowsdeclineinadvancedeconomiesfollowingpolicyshocks,illustrating

thepro-cyclicalityofremittancesinsourcecountriesandtheirroleinamplifyingglobalfinancialspillovers.Among

recipientcountries,ourresultsshowthatincountrieswithlowtomoderateremittancedependence,inflowstend

toincreasefollowingacontractionar