收入与成本同步攀升：2026 年航空出行需求展望.docxVIP

Revenues—And

Costs—AreRising

AirTravelDemandOutlook2026

JANUARY2026

Fivetrendstowatchforin2026andbeyond

12

Macrofactors

drivingvolatility

Geopoliticalturbulence(e.g.,tari?s),economic

uncertainty,and

infrastructurereliability(e.g.,airtra?ccontrollershortages,IToutages)

continuetoa?ectsupplyanddemandpatterns,

drivingvolatilityforairlinesworldwide

Divergenceinmargins

Theairlineindustryisinaperiodofpro?tability,althoughpro?tsarenotdistributedevenly,as

FSCandLCC

performancedivergesinNorthAmericaand

Asia-Paci?c

3

Costfocusand

emergingAIusecases

GrowthinCASKis

outpacingRASK,leadingairlinestoexplore

permanentshiftsin

coststructure,suchasconsolidationor

leveragingAItohelpcutcosts

4

EasingOEMdelays

Whilethereiscautious

optimismthataircraft

productionwillramp

up,anygrowthremains

vulnerabletoraw

materialandlabor

shortages,supplychain

disruptions,and

increasingregionalization

5

New?eet

types

FleettypessuchastheA321XLRareenteringthemarketatscale,

andnetworksare

beingreshapedwith

newcoststructuresasaresult.Forexample,XLRaircraftcanopentransatlantic

narrowbodyroutes,andA350-1000ULRaircraftwillenable

ultra-long-haul?ights

Source:BCGanalysis.

Note:Re?ectsinformationavailableasofNovember2025.FSC=full-servicecarrier;LCC=low-costcarrier;CASK=costperaverageseatkilometer;RASK=revenueperaverageseatkilometer;OEM=originalequipmentmanufacturer;XLR=extra-longrange;ULR=ultra-longrange.

Threemacrofactorscreatevolatilityforaviationbyshiftingsupplyanddemandpatterns

AirTravelDemandShifts

AirTravelDemandShifts

Changestopassengerbuyingpatterns

Changesto?ightavailability

Lowerleisuredemand,decliningbusinesstravel

Economicuncertainty

·

·ConsumersentimentandspendingpowerChangesinGDPgrowth,thejobmarket,

recessionrisks,orconsumerdiscretionaryspe