2026年资本市场展望报告.docxVIP

2026

CapitalMarketsForecast

Economic

Experimentation

Trade,Labor,andDebtUndertheMicroscope

2026

03CrCryptocurrency03DDiversification03GGold02HyHyperscalers01TrTrade02IImmigration03

03

Cr

Cryptocurrency

03

D

Diversification

03

G

Gold

02

Hy

Hyperscalers

01

Tr

Trade

02

I

Immigration

03

Ir

Interestrates

01

Ai

Artificial

intelligence

02

Te

Technology

04

S

Smallcap

01

C

Cybersecurity

04

P

Portfolio

01Ta

01

Ta

Tariffs

5

15

23

33

THEME01

THEME02

THEME03

CONCLUSION

TheReshoringExperiment

TheLaborExperiment

TheDebtExperiment

TheOutlook

TariffsandSmart

ReplacingWorkers

Investingina

FromLabto

Manufacturing

withAI

DebtCycle

PortfolioReality

04

O

Outlook

02LLabor

02

L

Labor

03

De

Debt

2

InvestinginaPeriodof

EconomicExperimentation

Successfulinvestinginvolvesbothartandscience.Theformeristhe“jenesaisquoi”thatcomesfromaneffectivemixtureofexperience,intuition,andhumility.Youare

luckyifyouhaveitand,ifyoudon’t,thereislittleyoucandotoacquireitanytimesoon.

Thescienceofinvesting,bycontrast,isavailabletoallthroughthecarefulstudyof

eventsandtheirantecedents.Fortunately,historyrhymesandthroughthethoughtfulframingofkeyeconomicfactorsandstudyoftheireffects,wecangainaclearersenseofwhateconomictrendsmayholdinthefuture.

Experimentationisnormal

Periodically,thereisadeviationfromeconomictrendsorpolicychangessosignificantthatitcanbeanalogizedonlytoeconomicexperimentation.Wefindourselvesinsuchatimetoday—makinghistorylessrelevantandcallingonadeeperunderstandingof

macrotheoryandcurrentobservationstopredictwheretheeconomyandmarketsmaybeheaded.

Criticaltoourinquiryisappreciatingthatexperimentationisafeature—notabug—ofanevolvingeconomy.Muchlikescienceitself,therecannotbeprogresswithout

testingnewcombinationsofelementsandinteractionsamongvariables.

Historyislitteredwithexamples.Thesenota