2025生育率悖论教育是关键研究报告（英文）-.docxVIP

Thefertilityrateparadox:

Educationiskey

10September2025

AllianzResearch

AllianzResearch

2

Content

4

ExecutiveSummary

10

Moneycan’tbuymorechildren

21

Lowfertilityratesareheretostay

27

Theworldpopulationmightpeakearlierandageevenfasterthanexpected

30

Capital-fundedpensionprovisionandflexibleretirementsolutionsgainin

importance

33

Educationiskeyforincreasingproductivity

38

Appendix

3

10September2025

Executive

Summary

MichaelaGrimm

SeniorEconomist,

DemographySocialProtection

michaela.grimm@

ArneHolzhausen

HeadofInsurance,WealthESGResearch

arne.holzhausen@

Moneycan’tbuymorechildren.AmongOECDcountries,taxbreaks,cash

benefitsandservicesgrantedforfamiliesandchildrencorrespondedto1.8%

ofGDP.IntheEU-27,theaverageshareofgovernmentexpendituresspendon

familyandchildrenhasincreasedfrom1.6%in2001to1.9%ofGDPin2023,

rangingfrom0.8%inMaltato4.0%inDenmark.However,inmanyindustrializedcountriestodayfamilyandchildrenpolicyisnotonlyconsideredanimportant

elementinpreventingchildhoodpovertyandsmoothingconsumption,butalsoasmoreorlesssubtleincentivetoincreasethefertilityrate.Theunprecedenteddeclineinfertilityratesinmanycountries,callsthetargetsoftoday’sfamily

policyintoquestion,suggestingthatjustspendingmoremoneydoesnot

necessarilyleadtohigherfertilityrates.Thisinturnraisesthequestionof

whetheritwouldnotbemoreimportanttofocusfamilypoliciesonguaranteeingthateverychildhasthesamechancesirrespectiveoftheparents’incomeandtopushaheadwiththenecessarymeasurestoadaptlabormarketsandpension

systemstotherealityofagingsocieties.Evenmoreso,iftoday’scriticsoftheUNpopulationprojectionsturnouttoberightandtheworldpopulationagesmuchstrongerthanexpectedinthelongterm.

Fertilityrateskeepdeclining,anditishardtotellwhy.Theunprecedenteddeclinein