IMF-当前的法学硕士如何有效地分析宏观金融问题？（英）-2026.2.pdfVIP

HowEffectivelyCan

CurrentLLMsAnalyze

MacrofinancialIssues?

PaolaGanumandTohidAtashbar

WP/26/35

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2026

FEB

©2026InternationalMonetaryFundWP/26/35

IMFWorkingPaper

Strategy,Policy,andReview

HowEffectivelyCanCurrentLLMsAnalyzeMacrofinancialIssues?

PreparedbyPaolaGanumandTohidAtashbar*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyEugenioCerutti

February2026

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:ThispaperempiricallyevaluatestheabilityofcurrentLargeLanguageModels(LLMs)toanalyze

macrofinancialcoverageinIMFArticleIVstaffreports,usinghumaneconomistsassessmentsasa

benchmark.WetestseveralGPTmodelsonreportsfrom2016-2024,assessingtheirperformanceonboth

qualitativeratingsandbinaryquestions.Ourfindingsindicatethatthelatestmodelscanmeaningfullyassist

economists,achievinganaverageaccuracyof71-75%onratingsandanaverageexactmatchrateof76-81%

onbinaryquestionsin2024acrossadvancedGPTmodels.However,wefindthatLLMstendtoassignhigher,

less-dispersedratingsthanhumanexpertsands