IMF-新的季度宏观经济预测框架：波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那案例说明（英）-2026.2.pdfVIP

ANovelQuarterly

Macroeconomic

ForecastingFramework

IllustrationontheCaseofBosniaand

Herzegovina

TiborHlédik,RilindKabashi,MariaArakelyan,BelmaČolaković

andElmaHasanović

WP/26/36

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2026

FEB

©2026InternationalMonetaryFundWP/26/36

IMFWorkingPaper

InstituteforCapacityDevelopment

ANovelQuarterlyMacroeconomicForecastingFramework:IllustrationontheCaseofBosniaand

Herzegovina

PreparedbyTiborHlédik,RilindKabashi,MariaArakelyan,BelmaČolakovićandElmaHasanović

AuthorizedfordistributionbyNatanEpstein

February2026

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:ThispaperdescribestheQuarterlyMacroForecastingFramework(QMFF),whichisanovel

approachtomacroeconomicpolicyanalysisandforecasting.AtthecoreofthisframeworkisaQuarterly

ProjectionModel,withmainbehavioralequationsquantifiedasdeviationsofrealvariablesfromtheirtrends.

Themodelcomprisesasimultaneoussystemofcalibratedequationsthatcoverthemainsectorsofthe

FinancialProgrammingandPoliciesframework,aswellaskeyaccountingrestrictionswithinandacross