swingtum theory beijing workshop.ppt.ppt

2006-6-1 h.pan@ IIFP, h.pan@ Intelligent Finance- towards comprehensive, predictive, dynamical and strategic analysis of global financial markets 潘和平 （PAN Heping） International Institute for Financial Prediction (IIFP) Australia and China ( 西南财大中国金融研究中心）Centre for Informatics and Applied Optimization (CIAO) School of Information Technology and Mathematical Sciences University of Ballarat, Mt Helen, 3353, Victoria, Australia Phone/Fax: +61-3-5327-9860/-9289, Mobile: 0411-489-847 Email: h.pan@, h.pan@.au Contents Aims of Intelligent Finance Background: Origin of Quantitative Finance and Problem of Predictability A Theoretical Framework of Intelligent Finance(9 Parts) Financial Information Fusion Multilevel Stochastic Dynamic Process (MSDP) Models(3 Types) Transformation of Consistently Profitable Trader 1. Aims of Intelligent Finance Intelligent Finance represents an emerging comprehensive perspective to global financial markets unifying professional empirical wisdom and art of market analysis and academic research and science of market modeling. () Professional Schools include Fundamental, Technical and Strategic Analysis. (FA, TA, SA) Academic Schools include Stochastic Process, Dynamical Systems, and Game Theory. (SP, DS, GT) Intelligent Finance is a quest for a comprehensive approach, methodology and system of financial market analysis, investing and trading, aiming to generate absolute positive and nontrivial returns of investment by means of exploiting the complete information about the markets from all conceivable general perspectives, and simultaneously minimizing the very last risk – incompleteness of a seemingly comprehensive investing or trading method or system. The key tenet of Intelligent Finance: Every existing approach or methodology of market analysis, investing and trading should be considered a part of the total toolkit (arsenal) for profitable trading, its effectiveness is time-varying relative to the state of