管理理论战略竞争策略 博弈论.ppt

* 迄今为止，对市场结构分析都以假定管理决策的中心是谋求最大利益。但是在如垄断寡头那样竞争十分激烈的场合，决策者可能采取一种风险厌恶政策，即确保在可能的最坏结果中得到最好的结果。 也就是每个博弈者将在可能最少的利润方案中选择利润最大的方案。 * （续） Nash 均衡为 （3，6） 和（6，3） 企业1 最小 3 2 企业2 最小 3 2 结果： 双方都没有新产品推出 在这个例子中，Nash 不是小中取大解！ * Maxmin Strategies (最大最小策略) Another example: * Sequential Game (顺序性博弈) 顺序性博弈：先下弈的优势 (First-mover Advantage) 迄今为止，我们都隐含假定双方下弈者都是同时实施。在顺序(Sequential game)中，就是有先有后了。 进入新的市场就是一个顺序博弈的例子。 * * * * * Strategic Behavior: Barriers of Entry Four traditional barriers to entry (passive) Economies of scale, product differentiation, control over scare resources, and legal factors Market Entry Decision (Entry Game) (aggressive) Present vs. Future Profits: Entry-Limiting Pricing Main ideas: Motivation: short-run Monopoly pricing practice earns “too much profits”, hence attract new entrants that will eat up the market share and drive down the prices in the long run Entry-Limit Pricing: need to set a price below the short-run monopoly price (Fig 11-1, p. 293) Figure 11-2: profit streams * Strategic Behavior: Barriers of Entry Stigler’s Open Oligopoly Model Objective: maximize the present value of profit In some cases, this may be achieved by setting a price designed to deter entry Optimal strategy depends on the discount rates used by the managers to determine the present value of profit A Comparison Entry-Limiting Pricing: long-time horizon a lower discount rate Open Oligopoly Model: short planning horizon a bigger discount rate * Strategic Behavior: Barriers of Entry Price Retaliation （价格报复） In contrast with Limit Pricing that keeps the price low over a long period of time, another strategic response to the threat of entry is to retaliate by reducing prices when entry actually does occur or it appears imminent. When the perceive danger has diminished, prices can be increased to whatever level management views as appropriate for market conditions. * Strategic Behavior: Barriers of Entry Establishing Commitment: Capacity Expansion （扩大生产能力） A strate