Chapter 3Planning for Human Resources.ppt

Chapter 3Planning for Human Resources ＣＨＡＰＴＥＲ　ＯＵＴＬＩＮＥ Opening case 3.1 Linking Human Resource Planning to Competitive Advantage 3.2 How to conduct HR planning 3.3 Human resource information system Opening case: Gaining competitive advantage at ATT The problem: New business plans making it difficult to staff key leadership positions The solution:Developing a computerized career progression system The result : has a pool of qualified internal candidates Human Resource Planning How HR planning contributes to competitive advantage By linking HRM practices to organizational goal By helping a firm plan its future recruitment, selection , and training and development practices By helping a firm avoid problems by operating proactively, rather than reactively Human Resource Planning Human Resource Planning Demand Forecasting Statistical approaches Judgmental methods Statistical Approaches to Demand Forecasting Trend analysis Ratio analysis Regression analysis Trend Analysis Ratio Analysis Regression Analysis When Are Statistical Approaches to Demand Forecasting Appropriate? Stable environment Business factor can be predicted with some accuracy The relationship between workforce size and business factor remains constant over time Judgmental Methods of Demand Forecasting Group brainstorming Sales force estimates Steps to Supply Forecasting Group positions by title, function, and level of responsibility Estimate within each job group how many of current employees remain, move to another position, or leave the organization Employee Flows in an Organization Forecasting Labor Supply 马尔可夫分析模式 马尔可夫分析模式是分析组织人员流动的典型矩阵模式。它的基本思想是，通过发现过去组织人事变动的规律，以推测组织在未来人员的供给情况。马尔可夫分析模式通常是分几个时期收集数据，然后再得出平均值，用这些数据代表每一种职位中人员变动的频率，就可以推测出人员变动情况。具体做法是将计划初期每一种工作的人数量与每一种工作的人员变动概率相乘，然后纵向相加，即得到组织内部未来劳动力的净供给量。 企业人员的变动有调出、调入、平调、晋升与降级五种。表3 假设一家零售公司在1999 至2000年间各类人员的变动情况。年初商店经理有40人，在当年期间平均80％的商店经理仍在商店内，20％的商店经理离职，期初80位经理助理有10％晋升到经理，70％留在原来的职务，20％离职；如果人员的变动频率是相对稳定的，那么在2000年留在经理职位上有32人（40×80％），另外，经理助理中有8人（80