基于现金流量的企业财务预警系统研究.doc

基于现金流量的企业财务预警系统研究 摘 要 随着经济的发展以及金融危机的影响，企业面临的危险越来越多，陷入财务困境的情况也屡见不鲜。因此，如何在复杂多变的市场环境下立于不败之地，考虑潜在风险就显得尤为重要，建立一整套基于现金流量的企业财务预警系统必须纳入企业发展规划日程。这是参与市场竞争的客观要求，也是企业生存发展的必要保障。但是从目前来看，我国财务风险预警的发展还很不完善，具体表现为没有形成一套完整的理论体系、财务风险预警模型、财务风险预警的实证分析说服力不强等，针对这些问题本文进行了探讨。 本文依据财务管理和风险管理理论，采用定性和定量相结合及实证分析的方法，对财务风险预警进行简单研究，旨在说明建立有效的财务风险预警系统预测模型的步骤和方法，并通过实证分析对其实用性和有效性进行验证，从而使财务风险预警在我国得到更好的发展和广泛的应用。 关键词：现金，现金流量，财务危机，财务预警系统 Corporate Finance Early Warning System Based On Cash Flow ABSTRACT With economic development and the impact of financial crisis, the development of enterprises is facing more and more risk, Losing in financial distress have become ordinary. How to win a invincible position in the complex and volatile market environment, consider ing the potential risk is particularly important. Establish a set of corporate financial early warning system based on cash flow must be included in the enterprise development planning agenda and is the objective requirements to participate in market competition, but also is necessary for the protection of the enterprise survival and development. Visible warning of financial risks plays an important role in the development of enterprises. But for now, the development of financial risk early warning is far from perfect, specific performance did not form a complete theoretical system, the financial risk early warning model. Empirical Analysis of the financial risk warning is not convincing enough to address these issues that were be further explored. According to the theory of financial management and risk management, the combination of empirical analysis using qualitative and quantitative in-depth study of financial risk early warning is designed to build an effective financial risk early warning system, and verified through empirical analysis of its practicality and effectiveness, so that the financial risk early warning gets better development and wide application in China. KEY WORDS: Cash, Cash flow, The financial crisis, Financial early warnin