蒙特卡罗法与常规极限平衡方法在边坡可靠度分析中的应用.docVIP

  蒙特卡罗法与常规极限平衡方法在边坡可 靠度分析中的应用# 李亮，褚雪松* 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （青岛理工大学土木工程学院，山东 青岛 266033） 摘要：在利用蒙特卡罗法和常规极限平衡方法进行边坡可靠度分析时，为了掌握不同的蒙特 卡罗抽样次数以及土性随机参数的标准差对计算结果的影响，针对某均质边坡，采用简化 Bishop 法和 Morgenstern-Price 法计算滑动面的安全系数，首先对给定的滑动面进行了不 同抽样次数的比较分析，其次选取了不同的土性随机参数进行计算，最后进行了最大失效概 率滑动面的搜索，结果发现：给定滑动面的失效概率随着抽样次数的增加，失效概率先增大， 然后逐渐减小，最后稳定在某一数值；土性随机参数的标准差增大后，采用简化 Bishop 法 和 Morgenstern-Price 法计算得到的失效概率逐渐接近；最大失效概率滑动面与最小安全系 数滑动面不同。 关键词：岩土工程；边坡稳定；可靠度分析；极限平衡法；失效概率 中图分类号：TU441 The application of Monte-Carlo method with traditional limit equilibrium methods in the reliability analysis of soil slopes LI Liang, CHU Xuesong (School of Civil Engineering,Qingdao Technological University, ShanDong QingDao 266033) Abstract: Monte-Carlo method and traditional limit equilibrium methods are usually adopted to evaluate the reliability of soil slopes. This paper aims to study the effect of sample number and standard deviation values of random variables for soil layers on the failure probability for given slip surface. For given homogenous slope, simplified Bishop method and Morgenstern-Price method were used to calculate failure probability for given slip surface. The different sample numbers and different standard deviation values were assumed for the reliability analysis of the homogeneous slope. The critical probability slip surface with maximum failure probability was determined and was compared with that with minimum factor of safety. The results have shown that for given slip surface, the failure probability firstly increases with the increment of sample number and then decreases to the constant value. The failure probability obtained by simplified Bishop method and Morgenstern-price method remains identical when sample number becomes larger. The slip surface with maximum failure probability is usually different from that with minimum factor of safety. Keywords: Geotechnical Engineering; slope stability; reliability analysis; limit equilibrium method; failure probability 0 引言 岩土工程中的边坡稳定性分析是工程设计相