吉林省农村居民消费现状分析与消费趋势预测.pdfVIP

吉林农业大学学报 2013，1 Journal of Jilin Agricultural University E-mail:jlndxb@ 吉林省农村居民消费现状分析与消费趋势预测 1，2 1 韩星焕 ，王 厦 1.吉林农业大学经济管理学院，长春 130118； 2.吉林农业大学中国粮食主产区农村经济研究中心，长春 130118 摘 要：根据1992—2010 年的吉林省农村居民消费统计数据，从消费水平、消费结构2 个角度对吉林省农村居民的 消费现状进行了分析，并以2001—2010 年为预测的样本区间，利用灰色预测模型对吉林省2011 －2020 年的吉林省 农村居民消费水平、消费结构进行了预测。结果显示：从总体上看，吉林省农村消费增长仍有较大空间，家庭经营 消费、衣着消费、居住消费和医疗消费将出现大幅增长；从生活消费的结构比例看，农村居民的恩格尔系数和交通 与通讯消费比例将进一步下降，而居住消费的比例则可能大幅上升。衣着消费和医疗消费的比例可能有小幅度增长， 家用设备消费和娱乐、教育、旅游消费的比例将基本保持稳定。 关键词：农村居民；消费水平；消费结构；消费趋势；吉林省 中图分类号：F320.3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-5684(2012) 网络出版地址：/kcms/detail/22.1100.S0855.001.html Analysis of Status Quo and Trend of Rural Consumption in Jilin Province HAN Xing-huan 1,2, WANG Xia 1 1. College of Economy and Management,Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118，China 2.Research Center for Agricultural Economy of China s’ Major Grain Producing Areas of Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118,China Abstract: With the data of rural consumption in Jilin province from 1992 to 2010, this paper analyzed the status quo of rural consumption from the perspectives of consumption level and structure, forecasted rural consumption level and structure from 2011 to 2020 with the sample data of rural consumption from 2001 to 2010 through gray prediction model. The results show that rural consumption in Jilin province has much greater potential to increase, especially household operational expenditure, clothes expenditure, housing consumption and medicare expenditure etc. in general; in terms of rural consumption structure, the proportion of food, travel and communication expenditure will decrease further while the proportion of housing consumption may increase sharply. The proportion of expenditure in clothes and medicare may fall down mildly, h