农村金融发展与经济增长相关关系研究的毕业论文.docVIP

内容摘要 农村金融发展与经济增长之间存在着相互影响的关系，本文以天津市为研究对象，统计了1998年-2008年农村三大金融机构（农业银行、农村信用合作银行、农村发展银行）的贷款余额情况，构建了贷款余额与农业GDP的回归模型，通过Evievs5.0对相关数据做回归分析，结果可看出农村三大金融机构对天津农村地区的经济是具有明显的推动作用，推动作用由大到小依次是农业银行、农村信用合作银行、农业发展银行。通过对方程总体显著性检验和解释变量系数的显著性检验，结果表明线性关系在95%的置信水平下显著成立，模型的拟合优度很好且模型建立是有效的。同时分析表明非正规金融组织（私人借贷、各种基金会、民间借贷、信用委托、典当等）对经济的增长也起到了推动作用。因此，正规金融和非正规金融的协调发展对推动经济增长具有至关重要的作用。 关键词：经济增长；农村金融发展；正规金融机构；非正规金融机构 Abstract Between the rural finance development and the economic growth has the mutual influence the relations, this article take Tianjin as the object of study, has counted 1998 - 2008 the countryside three big financial organs (Agricultural bank, rural credit Bank for cooperative, rural development bank) the loan remaining sum situation, has constructed the loan remaining sum and the agricultural GDP regression model, makes the regression analysis through Evievs5.0 to the correlation data, Finally may see the countryside three big financial organs has the obvious promotion effect to the Tianjin countryside area economy, the promotion effect from large to small in turn is the Agricultural bank, the rural credit Bank for cooperative, the agricultural development bank. Through to the equation overall significance examination and the explanatory variable coefficients significance examination, indicated finally the linear relationship obviously establishes under 95% fiduciary level, the model goodness of fit is very good, and the model building is effective. Simultaneously analyzes indicated that the non-regular financial organization (personal lent money, each kind of foundation, folk to lend money, credit request, to pawn and so on) also to play the promotion effect to the economical growth. Therefore, the regular finance and non-regular finances coordinated development has the very important function for the impetus economic growth. Key words：economic growth; rural finance development; regular financial organ; non-regular financial organ 目 录 一、相关文献理论回顾 ………………………………………… 2 二、我国农村金融体系现状