企业物流外包风险预警体系研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 物流外包是企业为了获得比单纯利用内部资源运作物流更多的竞争优势，而将非核 心、属于企业支持与辅助性功能的采购、仓储、运输、包装、配送、流通加工等物流业务 外包给第三方物流企业。然而外包并非万能法则，由于市场的瞬息万变，外包往往存在很 大的不确定性，物流外包系统的微小偏差可能会导致整个企业生产经营活动的混乱，从而 带来巨大的损失。因此，开展企业物流外包风险预警体系的研究就显得尤为必要和迫切。 然而长期以来，企业的风险管理偏重于风险事中控制和风险事后补救，风险监测指标 不够全面，监测系统的基础建设较为薄弱，这些使得企业的风险管理十分被动。而风险预 警则是积极主动地预测、分析可能出现的风险，建立风险预案，防范于未然。 本文首先在分析国内外物流外包、风险预警研究现状的基础上，从管理学、经济学、 系统论三个角度对风险成因进行了多视角的分析，并通过对当前物流外包风险管理现状的 研究，指出构建风险预警体系的必要性。接着，在系统分析的基础上，探讨了物流外包风 险预警体系的功能、结构以及运作流程，建立了物流外包风险预警指标体系。最后，采用 理论与实践相结合的方式，运用模糊综合评判方法构建了物流外包风险预警评价模型，并 把模型应用于实际的企业，构建出格兰仕物流外包风险预警体系。 关键词：物流外包；风险预警；预警指标体系；预警模型；模糊综合评判 I Abstract AAbbssttrraacctt In order to obtain more competitive advantages, enterprises give their non-core, the businessancillary functionssuch asstock, storage, transport, packaging, distribution tothe third party logistics enterprises. However, with the fast-changing market and the great uncertainty environment, outsourcing is not omnipotence. A little error in the system of logistics outsourcing may lead to a mess of all the enterprises’ production and operation, even bring tremendous losses. So it is very necessary and imperative for enterprises to research on early- warningsystem oflogisticsoutsourcing risk. For a long time, enterprise risk management emphasizes on risk control after the event. Risk monitoring index isnot comprehensive enough, and the monitoring systemsinfrastructure is weak, which makes enterprise risk management very passive. And the risk early-warning is actively forecastingthepossibleriskandestablishingplansforrisk. Firstly, based on the analysis of domestic and foreign logistics outsourcing, this paper analyzed the causes of risk from three perspectives of management, economics and system theory. Through the explanation of current logistics outsourci