A股技术分析头肩顶形态未能扭转，大盘继续回调.pdfVIP

Leung, Joseph From: Leung, Joseph Sent: Monday, May 14, 2012 4:18 PM Subject: 头肩顶形态未能扭转，大盘继续回调 [A股技术分析 - 5.14.2012] Attachments: Picture (Metafile); Picture (Metafile); Picture (Metafile); Picture (Metafile); Picture (Metafile); Picture (Metafile) A股技术分析 – 头肩顶形态未能扭转，大盘继续回调 上证指数跌0.60%至2,381点；深证成指跌1.16%至10,093点；创业板跌0.17%至720点 上周三上证指数扭转头肩顶形态的努力以失败告终，投资者强烈预感到大盘接下来可能走低。今天A股的惨淡表现证明 了这一点，甚至连人们期待已久的第三次存准率下调也未能推动股指上行。市场有句谚语这样说，如果大盘在“该反弹” 时却未反弹，最小阻力途径就会向下。收盘时上证指数稍低于25 日和50 日均线，如果明天它能收复这一点位（2384 点），A股还有翻身的机会。如果该点位失守，下一个支撑位将是2250-2300点，在这个区间投资者将再次盼望政策救 市。 上证指数今天收低的另一个原因是市场失去了可以期盼的对象。此前出现重大利空时，投资者总是寄希望于通过降低存 准率来救市。这就是为什么会出现这么多周五尾盘反弹的原因。而存准率真的下调之后，投资者无法确定下一个利好将 来自何方。要扭转A股走势似乎需要加大政策扶持力度。那么更有力的政策会是什么呢？它又在什么时候会出现呢？ Joseph, 分机8620 ***销售交易评论：上述观点基于技术分析，可能与其他销售交易人员观点有所不同*** A-SHARE TECHNICAL - PULLBACK CONTINUES AFTER INVERSE HS FAILS SHCOMP -0.60% to 2,381; SICOM -1.16% to 10,093; CHINEXT -0.17% to 720 After SHCOMPs inverse HS pattern failed last Wed, it gave a strong hint to investors that the next move was likely to be lower. Todays terrible mkt action confirms this view, as A-shrs couldnt manage any sort of rally even after the long awaited 3rd RRR cut. There is a trading adage that says if the mkts cant rally when it should, the path of least resistance is lower. SHCOMP closed slightly below a necktie of its 25ma and 50ma so the index needs to recover this level (2384) tomorrow if its going to have any chance. If this level doesnt hold next support level is the 2250-2300 range, at which point investors will be looking for policy support again. 1 Another reason why SHCOMP closed lower today was because hope was removed from the mkt. Previously, when there was negative headlines, investors had hope that the RRR cut would come to save the mkts. This is why there was so many Fri afternoon rallies. Now that it has fi