经济增长过程中的人民币升值问题.pdf

中文摘要 改革开放以来，我国经济持续稳定增长，GDP 一直呈现高速增长的态势，外汇储备大 幅增长，国际收支呈现“双顺差”的格局，外汇储备迅猛增到1.9万亿美元，与此同时， 国际游资大幅冲击我国的金融体系，国外政府也频频施压，要求人民币大幅升值。因此， 人民币面临巨大的升值压力。 人民币升值有其不利的一面，如加大出口企业的压力，影响对外资的利用，使外汇储 备缩水等。当然人民币升值也有有利的一面，如有利于产业结构调整，有利于降低进口材 料依赖型企业的生产成本，有利于清偿外债，对物价的平抑也有一定的效果。 德国和日本在战后期间同时经历了经济高速增长和汇率升值压力。日本快速大幅升 值，从而导致了其国内经济长达 10 年的萧条。而德国在注重自身货币政策的独立性的同 时，实施马克的主动渐进升值，使德国保持了较低的通货膨胀率和稳定的产出水平。吸取 国际经验，我国人民币应遵循主动性、小幅渐进升值，并保持货币政策的独立性。 在论文结尾，本文给出了一些建议，如调整产业结构，扩大内需，改革现有的国际储 备体系，缓解国际储备的高速增长，加快人民币国际化步骤等。 关键词：经济增长 日元升值 马克升值 人民币升值 I Abstract Since our Reform and Open Policy was implemented, our economy has increased very rapidly. The GDP has grown at high rates, even at more than 10% in recent years. Both the current account and capital financial account have been in surplus state. The foreign reserves have been increased to usd1953.7 billion till now. Meantime, hot money is striking our financial system and foreign governments also put pressure onto China to let Renminbi appreciate. Therefore, Renminbi faces huge appreciation pressures. On one hand, Renminbi appreciation has unfavorable effect. Renminbi appreciation will increase the pressure of export enterprises, decrease the foreign investment, and make the foreign reserves shrink. On the other hand, Renminbi appreciation has favorable effect. It will help to upgrade the industry structure, make the production cost decline, ease the burden of foreign loans and curb the inflation. Germany and Japan also experienced the fast economic growth and foreign exchange appreciation. Japanese Yen had a fast and wide