人民币在世界经济中的作用外文原文.PDFVIP

The Role of the Renminbi in the World Economy Fred Hu As China’s economy has continued its remarkable expansion and gained an increasingly important role in the global economy, China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), has also captured growing attention from investors and policymakers around the world. In this article, I briefly discuss three significant issues concerning the renminbi— namely, the near-term direction of the exchange rate, the renminbi’s convertibility in the medium term, and the currency’s international role down the road in the future. Exchange Rate Outlook On July 21, 2005, China embarked on long-awaited currency reforms toward the goal of greater exchange rate flexibility. Since then the renminbi’s annual nominal appreciation has averaged about 5 percent against the U.S. dollar. On a trade-weighted basis, howev- er, the appreciation of the renminbi has been almost negligible. What will happen next? On the one hand, the Chinese authorities remain cautious toward fast-paced and substantial currency strength- ening. On the other hand, it is also clear that pressures are continu- ing to build—both at home and abroad—for far more pronounced renminbi appreciation. Domestically, China faces rising inflationary pressures and equally worrisome, rapidly developing equity and property bubbles. At the same time, rebalancing requires tighter Cato Journal, Vol. 28, No. 2 (Spring/Summer 2008). Copyright © Cato Institute. All rights reserved. Fred Hu is Managing Director at Goldman Sachs (Asia), and Co-Director of the National Center for Economic Research at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 219 Cato Journal macroeconomic policies and expenditure switching from net exports and fixed investment t