中国货币错配的测算与影响因素研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 货币错配是指经济行为主体的资产或负债、收入或支出使用不同的货币计值 时，因汇率发生变化，其净资产或净收入受到影响的一种经济金融现象。由于货币 没有实现国际化，发展中国家在进行国际贸易时，必然会涉及到以外币计值的现象， 从而积累了大量外币资产和负债，进而产生货币错配。我国同样存在货币错配问题， 特别是 1994 年汇改以来，我国货币错配高速增长。货币错配对一国经济的影响是 非常巨大的，研究货币错配对我国汇率制度改革和金融深化过程中的政策制定具有 深远的意义。 本文在整理归纳国内外学者关于货币错配的界定、测量及影响因素的研究基础 上，首先对我国货币错配的特点和货币错配的影响原因进行分析。其次，通过对比 不同货币错配测算指标，选择合适的指标测算我国货币错配值，并将货币错配值作 为被解释变量，将影响原因作为解释变量进行实证研究。研究结果表明，实际有效 汇率、中美利率差、净出口/GDP 与我国货币错配值呈正相关，通货膨胀率与我国 货币错配呈负相关。最后，本文从资产和负债两方面入手，深入分析金融危机后我 国经济变量对货币错配的影响。 在实证结果的基础上，本文从贸易顺差、经济发展、资金流动、资本成本，金 融监管等角度为解决我国货币错配问题提出政策建议。 关键词：货币错配，测算，影响因素，金融危机 I ABSTRACT Currency mismatch is the very phenomenon that economic agents’ assets or liabilities and income or expense denominated by different currencies, when the exchange rate changes, net assets or net income is changed. Because of no currency internationalization, developing countries has to use foreign currency when participate in international trade, which has accumulated a large number of foreign-currency assets and liabilities and bring about the currency mismatch. We also exists currency mismatch, especially after the exchange rate reform in 1994, our currency mismatch has rapid growth. Currency mismatch has a great affect in economic, making study in the currency mismatch has far-reaching significance for exchange rate system reform and policy-making of the process of financial deepening. Based on summarizing the definition, measurement and influencing factors of currency mismatch from the domestic and foreign scholars, firstly, the paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of China’s currency mismatch. Secondly, compared to several of measurement methods,