紧缩性政策下的流动性过剩问题研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 改革开放的30年间，我国取得了举世瞩目的成就，尤其是经济领域，1978年我国的 GDP为3645.2亿元，2007年我国GDP为246619亿元，是1978年的65倍还多。然而快速 增长的经济也呈现了许多问题，比如说贫富差距拉大，城乡发展不平衡，而近两年来更为 突出的是流动性过剩问题。90年代的通货紧缩曾使得我国经济增长几乎处于停滞状态，物 价还曾经出现负增长现象。进入新世纪，尤其是04年以来，我国出现了物价、房价上涨 过快的势头，近两年的股市飞速上涨也使资本市场呈现巨大的泡沫，这说明我国出现了流 动性过剩问题。针对这一现象，央行采取了紧缩的货币政策，先后曾多次加息、提高存款 准备金率，加大公开市场操作，提高贴现率等等措施，然而，去年的一系列宏观经济运行 数据表明紧缩性政策之下我国流动性却有更加泛滥之势。针对这一问题，本文通过使用定 性和定量分析相结合方法来进行研究，在实证研究中，主要采用了典型相关分析和时间序 列分析方法。通过研究，笔者认为，人民币升值的预期和双顺差的出现是直接导致我国流 动性过剩的最主要原因，流动性过剩对资本市场的影响快于商品市场相比，也快于银行体 系。对于如何应对流动性过剩问题，笔者认为单单依靠传统的货币政策是无法解决当前流 动性过剩的，必须结合多种政策手段，对于货币政策的滞后性应该提前采取预防措施，尤 其对于过剩的流动性要“疏导”，而非“堵截”。 关键词：紧缩性政策 流动性过剩 资本市场 商品市场 VAR III Abstract AAbbssttrraacctt China has made great achievements during 30 years for reforming and opening, especially in the economic field, Chinas GDP was 364.52 billion RMB in 1978, but Chinas GDP was 24.6619 trillion RMB in 2007, 65 times more than1978. However, rapid economic growth has brought a number of problems, for instance, the widening gap between the rich and poor, imbalance between urban and rural development, and more prominent one is the problem of excess liquidity in the past two years. Deflation in the 1990s had made Chinas economic growth almost at a standstill, and at one time CPI had a negative growth of the phenomenon. In the new century, especially from 2004, CPI and housing prices has emerged rising too fast in our country. At the same time, stock prices index extremely rapidly jump in the past two years and it shows capital market has appeared great bubbles. China seems a problem of excess liquidity. In response to the phenomenon, the central bank adopted a tight monetary policy that the interest rate and dep