贸易增长惯性与贸易政策的滞后效应：以出口退税政策为例的研究.pdfVIP

暨南大学硕士论文 贸易增长惯性与贸易政策的滞后效应：以出口退税政策为例的研究 摘要 贸易惯性表现在，当贸易过程经受外在的冲击时，贸易数额的即期变动较小， 然后逐步增大并增至峰值，在持续一段时间后逐步衰减和消失。 本文探讨贸易体系的惯性属性，分析贸易活动惯性作用的机理及表现形式， 并以出口退税政策为例分析贸易政策变量影响贸易活动的滞后效应。首先对物理 学及经济学中的惯性及其相关理论进行了分析,并对有关惯性问题的相关文献进 行了综述。然后，通过构建多项式分布滞后模型来研究中国的平均出口退税率的 变动对中国对美出口（用中国对美的出口增长率来表示）的滞后影响。实证结果 表明，出口退税率对中国对美出口的影响持续3 个滞后期，且当期的影响比较小， 滞后一期和滞后两期的影响比较大，然后在滞后三期时减小，说明贸易惯性在贸 易活动中的存在。其次，从美对中的进口需求惯性、国际贸易合同的履约期的贸 易量稳定、沉没成本对企业出口决策的影响、出口协同效应的存在等四个方面对 中国对美的出口惯性存在的原因进行了描述性分析。最后，给出了本文的研究结 论，并提出了相关政策建议。 关键词：贸易惯性，贸易政策，滞后效应 I 暨南大学硕士论文 贸易增长惯性与贸易政策的滞后效应：以出口退税政策为例的研究 ABSTRACT The performance of trade inertia is a series of changes of the volume of trade when the process of trade is subjected to external shocks. At first, the immediate change will be small, then gradually increases to a peak. After a period of time, it gradually decays and disappears. This article researches on the properties of the inertia of the trading system, and analyzes the mechanism and manifestations of trade inertia. Taking export tax rebate policy as an example, it also analyzes the lagged effects of the trade policy on trade activities. Firstly, the article analyzes the inertia theory in physics and economics and its related theories, and reviews some literatures on inertia. Secondly, by constructing a PDL model, the lagged effect, which the changes of Chinas average export tax rebate rate has had on Chinas exports to the US, is studied. The empirical results show that the lagged effects of the export tax rebate rate on Chinas exports to the U.S last 3 periods, and the impact of the current period is relatively small, but the one of the lag first and second period are relatively large, then the one of the lag third reduced, which indicates that the existence of trade inertia in trade activities. Thirdly, it makes the descr