城市扩张、房价变动与产业结构升级.pdfVIP

中文摘要 近二十年来，我国各级城市得到了快速发展，然而过快的城市扩张速度，极大地消耗 了本已稀缺的城市土地资源，导致土地成本日益攀升，并引发了高房价和产业流失等发展 问题。受此影响，一线城市的企业不但要承担高地价、高房价对固定成本的冲击，还要承 担高房价影响下劳动力成本上升以及区域劳动力流入速度减慢的问题，最终诱发了低端制 造产业链的迁移。传统产业的迁移能否使高端制造业、服务业以及新兴产业得到必要的发 展空间，从而推动地区的产业结构升级顺利，决定了我国城市扩张下的土地矛盾与产业矛 盾等问题是否能够在市场经济的自我调整机制和政策支持下得到解决，因此必须进行深入 研究。 本文通过拓展前人的研究成果，构建了单一中心城市两部门均衡模型和城市规模-房价 模型，在理论上探讨了城市扩张对产业结构升级的直接作用，以及城市扩张通过房价中介 因子对产业结构升级的影响。另外，本文使用了2011 年我国41 个大中城市统计数据，通 过结构方程模型方法进行实证分析，从而在数据上检验了城市扩张与产业结构升级、城市 扩张与平均房价、平均房价与产业结构之间的影响机制。本文的研究结果表明，城市扩张 以及房价的中介因素都确实对城市的产业结构升级有着显著的正向影响。 最后，本文就上述分析结果，并结合我国经济发展的实际情况，为各地区的城市发展 提出了一些可供参考的政策建议。 关键词：城市扩张 产业结构升级 结构方程 I 英文摘要 In the context of the rapid advance reform and opening, all the cities of China have been in rapid development in past 20 years. But the excessive expansion of city boundaries, as a great drain on the already scarce urban land resources, led to the increasing rise in the cost of land and high level of house price and consumer price. The enterprises of developed cities not only had to bear the high land prices and high prices of fixed costs, but also the impact of rising labor costs and lack of labors. Whether the transfer of manufacturer industries from eastern cities would lead to regional industrial upgrading, decides whether the development problems would be solved by the market. This is very important for the future of China. This paper builds two models to find the direct effect of the urban expansion to industrial upgrading, and the house-price mediator effect from urban expansion to industrial upgrade. In this paper, I also use the inter-provincial data of 41 large and medium-sized cities to do the empirical analysis within structural equation modeling method. The research results prove that, urban expansion and mediating factors of housing prices are